Quibbl Results: Tax Reform

Politics Leaderboard Update

President Trump finally outlined the GOPs tax reform plan. Were Quibbl users right or wrong about the details?

By Ben Purcell

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At last week’s tax speech, President Trump proposed a top individual rate of 35% and pointed individually at 47% of the crowd 

All summer long, as Republicans hashed out a tax reform plan, pundits across the political spectrum debated what should happen and what could happen with the country’s tax laws. Amidst all the uncertainty, Quibbl asked what actually would happen when the GOP finally released its initial plan. Last week, President Trump went to the Indiana State Fairgrounds to unveil the first principles of the long-anticipated tax reform effort.

So how did Quibbl users do?

The first big question about the new plan was when we’d see it. Back in August, Quibbl asked if the first official plan would be released in August, September, October or None of the Above. 60% correctly predicted that the plan would be released in September. But it definitely came down the wire. Just a few days later and the plan would have been released in October. The 40% who picked “None of the Above” were probably banking on Republicans still not having it together by November – certainly an understandable prediction.

Quibbl also asked users to predict what the top corporate tax rate would be: 60% of those who answered also got this one right. The plan cuts the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, which is still north of the 15% initially sought by the Trump administration. Those who answered that the rate would be 15% or lower understandably based their answer on the 15% figure publicly called for by the Trump administration, but the corporate tax rate in the reform plan’s first outline came in between the preferred numbers of the President and Congress. Maybe those who correctly answered between 15-23% read up on their Art of the Deal.

The quibbl asking about the top individual tax rate was a bit more difficult. Quibbl asked if the top rate in the first proposal would be 30% or Below, 30.01-35%, 35.01-40% or Above 40%. Yes, it got super technical. And the responses were as spread out as they could be. An equal number of users predicted each outcome: only 25% got it right (the top rate was 35%, right on the edge of two options). The range of answers shows the summer uncertainty over tax reform. The Above 40% option was inspired by the ideas of then-chief White House advisor Steve Bannon, who was fired before the Quibbl even closed.

Overall, while some in the media, and even some in the Republican party, were surprised by the tax proposals, Quibbl users saw most of it coming. But questions remain:

Will Mitch McConnell as Majority Leader live to see the tax reform fight?

The Treasury secretary says tax reform will be passed by 2018. Is he right?

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